Abstract

The impact of climate change is being felt worldwide, with Europe experiencing the fastest rate of warming among all continents. Beyond socioeconomic consequences, climate change can potentially affect demographic outcomes, including fertility, in terms of both reproductive health and fertility behavior. However, to date, there is limited evidence on the relationship between climate change and fertility. With this paper, we intend to (1) expand the theoretical discussion on the role of uncertainty in childbearing decisions by moving beyond the common focus on economic uncertainty to explicitly consider the role of environmental uncertainty; (2) broaden the scholarly understanding of the relationship between climate change and fertility, which has mainly focused on objective measures of climate change, by investigating the role of climate change concerns; and (3) offer the first empirical evidence on the association between climate change concerns and fertility intentions for Italy using the 2016 Household Multipurpose Survey “Family and Social Subjects” (FSS) (N = 4408). Our results provide initial indications that environmental uncertainty may be linked to lower fertility intentions. Individuals who perceive climate change as a major issue or the biggest problem of the future tend to be less likely to report an intention to have a child. This pattern appears consistent across parity groups, and the findings remained stable net of sociodemographic characteristics and individuals’ positioning on the conservative–liberal spectrum. Overall, these findings contribute to the discussion on how uncertainties and pessimism may shape childbearing intentions.

Puglisi, C., Muttarak, R. & Vignoli, D. Climate change concerns and fertility intentions: first evidence from Italy. Genus 81, 7 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1186/s41118-025-00244-5

An analysis shows that large fractions of future generations will be exposed to extreme climate events that would occur only once every 10,000 years in the absence of global warming.

Gualdi, R., & Muttarak, R. (2025). Climate risk for younger generations is set to soar. Nature. 641, 315-316. doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-025-01336-0

Abstract:

Understanding the relationship between extreme temperatures and health among older adults is of paramount importance for public health in ageing societies. This study aims to enhance our understanding of the impact of extreme temperatures on morbidity, i.e. the risk of being hospitalised, using medications for heart conditions, and experiencing the onset of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) among older adults in Europe (65+ years old) using five waves from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE, 2004–2015). It also explores heterogeneity in this impact depending on an array of factors that affect exposure and vulnerability to climate, including geographical location, gender, age, educational level, having a partner/child and living in an urban or a rural area. Results from individual fixed-effects models show that extremely cold temperatures increase the risk of being hospitalised and suffering from CVDs, while heat exposure has no noteworthy effect. Broken down by geographical location, the results indicate that one additional extremely cold day influences the risk of hospitalisation in the coldest and the warmest European regions, while extreme heat influences this risk in the warmest European regions. Finally, the oldest old and low educated individuals appear to be the most vulnerable social groups. The study concludes by discussing the advantages and the limitations of using survey data to study climate and health, and the strategies suggested by the relevant literature to prevent temperature-related illness.

Zanasi, F., & Keivabu, R. C. (2024). Extreme temperatures and morbidity in old age in Europe. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 22, 1-28. https://austriaca.at/?arp=0x003ef8d1

In recent years, the idea of having fewer children or not having children at all has been put forward by some climate activists as way to tackle climate change. A few scientific studies have demonstrated some evidence that younger generations view climate change as a reason for intending not to have children.1,2 This phenomenon may point to the Malthusian theory of the negative relationship between population and environment, whereby population growth is seen to cause environmental deterioration due to higher demand for food, water, land and other materials. With respect to climate change, the expansion from a world of 2 billion people in 1927 to the present world of 8 billion naturally means increased demand for energy, which is still mainly based on fossil fuels. Consequentially, as the global population grows, carbon emissions also increase.  

https://www.un.org/en/population-climate-change-decent-living-all-without-compromising-climate-mitigation

ABSTRACT: As the global population hit eight billion in 2022 and climate change-induced extreme events have become more visible worldwide, there has been renewed public interest in the impact of population growth on climate change. This has also sparked a debate about the role of population control policies as a key strategy to curb global warming. This essay argues that the relationship between population dynamics and climate change is highly complex, and that having specific background knowledge could be beneficial for participating in this debate. To this end, this essay presents three points that readers may wish to consider when forming their judgements: (1) the role of demographers in assessing how human population impacts climate change; (2) the importance of acknowledging the demographic heterogeneity and complexity of the relationship between human populations and climate change; and (3) the disparities in resource consumption and the resulting emissions in the context of climate justice.

Muttarak, R. (2024). Towards a better understanding of the role of population policies in tackling climate change. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 2024. https://t.co/RMdSz7jRKD