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Immigrants’ return intentions and labor market behavior when the home country is unsafe

Bassetto, J.; Freitas Monteiro, T.

Journal of Labor Economics , 43(4) . (2025)

Abstract

This paper investigates whether shocks to safety conditions in the home country affect immigrants’ return intentions and labor market behavior. For identification, we exploit the quasi-random occurrence of violent events in the home-country relative to the timing of interviews and job separations in Germany. We show that immigrants interviewed after a violent event in their home-country are more likely to wish to remain in Germany permanently. If immigrants enter unemployment following a violent event in their home-country, they increase their job search effort and find employment faster, at the cost of accepting lower wages and working in less productive firms.

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